The October box office is about to enter an uneasy weekend. Two very different films are stepping into the spotlight on Friday, Oct. 9, but only one appears to have a clear path toward the top.
On one side is Universal’s Other Mommy, a supernatural horror film starring Jessica Chastain, arriving just as Halloween draws closer. On the other is Sony’s The Social Reckoning, Aaron Sorkin’s companion piece to The Social Network, which is revisiting the world of Facebook, whistleblowers and social media controversy. Current industry forecasts suggest the horror film could approach $20 million domestically, while Sorkin’s drama is tracking closer to $7 million.
But the real question is what happens after the opening weekend.
Other Mommy Has the Weekend’s Darkest Advantage
At first glance, Other Mommy seems to have something its competition cannot easily manufacture: timing.
The R-rated horror movie opens Friday, Oct. 9, in more than 3,200 North American theatres. Universal’s release schedule confirms the Oct. 9 theatrical debut.
Directed by Rob Savage, Other Mommy stars Jessica Chastain as a mother caught in a disturbing supernatural situation involving her daughter. The film is based on Josh Malerman’s novel Incidents Around the House and centres on an eight-year-old girl who encounters a sinister entity she calls her “Other Mommy.”
That premise gives the movie an immediate horror identity. As October moves toward Halloween, audiences are already being offered a reason to seek out something unsettling on the big screen.
The question is whether that seasonal advantage will be enough.
Boxoffice Pro previously projected a domestic opening between $15 million and $25 million. Deadline’s latest forecast placed the film around $20 million, with more recent tracking continuing to position Other Mommy as the likely No. 1 movie of the weekend.
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The Horror Hook Is Clear — But the Reviews Are Not
The film’s commercial opportunity is obvious, but its critical reception has created a much more uncertain picture.
Early reactions have been notably mixed to negative. The Hollywood Reporter reported that critics were being given access to the movie very close to its release, while early responses included harsh assessments of both the film and Chastain’s performance.
That does not automatically mean audiences will stay away.
Horror can sometimes operate differently from prestige dramas. A creepy premise, a strong trailer and the desire for a Halloween-season movie can be enough to bring viewers into theatres even when critics are unconvinced.
Still, Other Mommy does not have the protection of an established horror franchise. If the opening weekend attracts curious moviegoers but audience word of mouth turns negative, the film could face a difficult second weekend.
That makes the first few days particularly important.
Jessica Chastain Already Knows the Horror Battlefield
There is at least one familiar face standing in the darkness.
Jessica Chastain has already appeared in major theatrical horror releases, including 2013’s Mama and 2019’s It Chapter Two.
Mama opened to $28.4 million domestically and ultimately finished with $71.6 million in North America and $146.4 million worldwide.
It Chapter Two was on an entirely different scale. It opened to $91 million domestically and eventually reached $211.6 million in North America and $473.1 million worldwide.
Those movies had considerably stronger built-in recognition than Other Mommy, so they are not direct box-office comparisons. Even so, Chastain gives the new horror film a recognisable lead who has already demonstrated an association with the genre.
The marketing also has a simple visual idea at its centre: a mother, a child and a disturbing supernatural double.
For an October release, that is an easy concept to sell.
The Social Reckoning Walks Into a Different Kind of Shadow
Then there is The Social Reckoning.
Unlike Other Mommy, the Sony release is not trying to frighten audiences with something lurking inside a family home. Its unease comes from a world many viewers already know.
Written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, the movie is officially described by Sony as a companion piece to The Social Network, rather than a conventional sequel.
It is inspired by the real-life Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen and follows her efforts to expose the company’s internal information with help from Wall Street Journal reporter Jeff Horwitz.
Mikey Madison plays Haugen, Jeremy Allen White plays Horwitz and Jeremy Strong portrays Mark Zuckerberg. The cast also includes Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Billy Magnussen and Bill Burr.
Sony is releasing The Social Reckoning exclusively in theatres on Oct. 9.
And that date puts it directly into a weekend where expectations are already being shaped by its much darker box-office competitor.
Why The Social Network Comparison Could Be Difficult to Escape
Sorkin has one enormous advantage: audiences know the world he is returning to.
He wrote the screenplay for David Fincher’s 2010 film The Social Network, which became both a critical and awards success.
But that achievement is also the source of a major challenge.
The Social Reckoning tells a different story. Instead of focusing primarily on the creation of Facebook and the disputes surrounding Mark Zuckerberg, the new film moves forward to the whistleblower revelations involving the company’s internal documents and their implications for misinformation and social media’s influence on society.
In other words, this is not another origin story.
It examines what happened after Facebook had already become a dominant force.
The problem is that audiences have spent years hearing about Facebook’s controversies, algorithmic influence, misinformation concerns and political consequences. Much of the wider story is already familiar.
That leaves The Social Reckoning with the difficult task of convincing moviegoers that there is something new to discover.
The Box Office Forecasts Reveal a Major Gap
The numbers currently suggest that the two movies are entering the weekend from very different positions.
| Film | Release Date | Theatrical Footprint | Current Opening Forecast |
| Other Mommy | Oct. 9, 2026 | More than 3,200 North American theatres | Around $20 million |
| The Social Reckoning | Oct. 9, 2026 | Wide theatrical release | Around 7million–8 million |
| Verity | Second weekend | Already established in theatres | Around $12 million projected |
Deadline projected The Social Reckoning at around $8 million, while Variety’s latest tracking placed it closer to $7 million. Earlier Boxoffice Pro estimates had put its likely opening range between $6 million and $10 million.
Even the upper end of those projections would put the film substantially below The Social Network.
Rotten Tomatoes currently lists The Social Reckoning at 64% from critics. Early reviews have praised performances from Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong, while other critics have questioned whether the movie provides enough new insight into issues audiences have already spent years discussing.
For Sony, that creates an especially difficult theatrical equation.
Another Tech Drama Is Already Entering the Conversation
There is another twist.
Luca Guadagnino’s Artificial, which centres on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and turmoil surrounding the company, recently premiered at the New York Film Festival.
Its early reviews have been substantially stronger, with critics discussing the movie as a potential spiritual successor to The Social Network.
Artificial is not opening this weekend. It arrives on Christmas Day.
Yet its presence still matters.
Both films are attempting to dramatise major technology companies and the people behind them. While The Social Reckoning is asking audiences to revisit Facebook, Artificial gives moviegoers another contemporary technology-industry story to anticipate.
That comparison arrives at an awkward moment for Sorkin’s film.
Verity Has Already Built a Box Office Cushion
While the two newcomers fight for attention, Amazon MGM’s Verity is entering its second weekend with something they do not have: an established audience.
The Colleen Hoover adaptation had reached $37.9 million domestically through Tuesday in Deadline’s latest report.
Its second weekend is expected to bring a significant decline, potentially 60% or more, with a projected weekend around $12 million.
The film’s reported C+ CinemaScore could make a steep second-weekend drop more likely.
But even with that decline, Verity has already built a meaningful theatrical cushion from its opening weekend.
That could make the returning title a serious presence in the weekend rankings.
Angel and the Badman Brings a Western Alternative
Angel Studios is also entering the frame with Angel and the Badman, a western starring Tommy Lee Jones, Neal McDonough and Zachary Levi.
The film is scheduled to play in approximately 2,000 North American theatres.
It offers audiences something completely different from both a supernatural horror movie and a technology-focused drama. However, it is not expected to seriously challenge Other Mommy for the No. 1 position.
Pan’s Labyrinth Returns to the Big Screen
Another familiar title is also emerging from the shadows.
Fathom is bringing Guillermo del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth back to theatres for its 20th-anniversary rerelease.
The three-time Oscar winner is scheduled to return at more than 1,000 locations.
During its original theatrical run, Pan’s Labyrinth earned approximately $37.6 million domestically.
Unlike the new releases, the rerelease is aimed at moviegoers who want another opportunity to experience an acclaimed film on the big screen.
Fjord Begins With a Much Smaller Footprint
Neon is taking a very different approach with Fjord, the Cannes Palme d’Or winner.
The film is launching in only four theatres in Los Angeles and New York.
That limited opening is far too small to compete with the weekend’s wide releases. Instead, the strategy gives Fjord an opportunity to build word of mouth and potentially expand depending on audience response and theatre demand.
It is another reminder that not every theatrical release is fighting the same battle.
Can Other Mommy Survive Beyond Opening Weekend?
On paper, the weekend belongs to Other Mommy.
The film has Halloween approaching, an immediately understandable supernatural premise, a major star in Jessica Chastain and a release in more than 3,200 North American theatres.
The forecasts reflect that advantage, with the movie carrying a realistic path toward an opening around $20 million.
But there is a dark cloud hanging over that projection: the reviews.
If audiences embrace the movie despite the early critical response, Other Mommy could benefit from the exact seasonal momentum that horror films are looking for in October. If viewers agree with the negative reactions, the film may struggle to maintain its momentum after opening weekend.
Meanwhile, The Social Reckoning faces a quieter but equally important challenge.
Sorkin, a recognisable cast and a culturally relevant subject give the movie plenty of credibility. Yet its Facebook story is familiar, its connection to The Social Network creates unavoidable comparisons, and current forecasts place its opening firmly in the single digits.
Conclusion: Horror Has the Advantage, But the Real Test Comes Later
The Oct. 9–11 weekend is not shaping up as a blockbuster frame, but it presents a fascinating contrast.
Other Mommy is betting on fear, timing and Jessica Chastain to pull moviegoers into theatres during the Halloween season. The Social Reckoning is betting on Aaron Sorkin, a strong cast and continuing interest in the consequences of social media.
For now, the numbers point clearly toward Other Mommy.
The supernatural horror film is tracking toward roughly $20 million, while The Social Reckoning is expected to open around $7 million to $8 million.
But opening weekend is only the first chapter.
For Other Mommy, the real test will be whether audiences can turn curiosity into sustained word of mouth despite its mixed early reviews. For The Social Reckoning, the challenge is convincing moviegoers that this return to the world of Facebook has enough new material to justify another trip into a story they already know.
The box office may belong to horror this weekend. What happens after the lights come back on could be much harder to predict.
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Source and Research Disclaimer
This article has been prepared based on the information and sources provided for this report, including Deadline, Boxoffice Pro, Variety, Universal Pictures, Sony Pictures and Rotten Tomatoes. Box-office figures cited for upcoming or current releases are industry projections and estimates available before the films’ opening weekend. Actual grosses may differ once Thursday previews and full weekend results are reported. The article reflects the information available from the supplied sources and does not imply independent verification beyond that material.
Sources
- Deadline — U.S. Box Office Preview
- Boxoffice Pro — Other Mommy and The Social Reckoning Forecast
- Variety — The Social Reckoning Box Office Forecast
- Sony Pictures — The Social Reckoning official movie page
- Rotten Tomatoes — The Social Reckoning first reviews
Featured Image Credit: Universal Pictures
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